It’s the kind of forewarning we would prefer not to hear when we have not even escaped the third Covid-19 wave and lockdown.
ut tucked away in the Government’s new Living with Covid plan is a caution that coronavirus poses a serious risk of resurgence next winter.
It’s the nightmare nobody wants to repeat but the possible threat is likely to guide many actions from now on long before the autumn leaves start to fall. Here is what we need to take note of:
The Great Unknown
The document sets out that the expectation is that a significant majority of the population will be vaccinated by next autumn and winter .
Nevertheless, there are real risks that we may face the same challenges in controlling Covid-19 and protecting our health service as we did during this winter for a number of reason.
It cites the currently unknown impact of vaccines on transmission – will they reduce the chance of one person being able to infect another.
It also points to the risk from new variants of the virus which could be more infectious and also reduce the impact of vaccines.
And, just like the winter we have emerged from, we will be back indoors in poorly ventilated spaces- a breeding ground for the spread of viruses.
Social Distancing
It is significant that the plan emphasises the probable need for the “same level of social distancing measures “ to be in place. We will still be keeping two metres apart.
But the wider implications of this is very significant and must be taken in.
If that is the case businesses which are struggling to operate with two metre distancing will be in the same predicament next winter.
It means fewer customers in places like restaurants and pubs if they are allow reopen.
The slow-down it causes in so many areas of life will continue including the health service.
Cold and Dry
Laboratory experiments show the coronavirus likes cold, dry conditions. In winter, people tend to heat their houses to around 20 °C, and the air is dry and not well ventilated, say experts. Indoor conditions in the winter are favourable to viruses.
Double Pressure
It points out that other respiratory infections could be in greater circulation, potentially placing a double pressure on the health service.
Flu has been in retreat over the last winter. Not one case was reported here. But scientists fear that not having been exposed to flu over the winter our immunity will have waned. Fewer infections in one season could lead to a larger outbreak in the next.
If we loosen social distancing, flu along with coronavirus could resurge. It’s why there should be no time lost over the summer if the coronavirus is kept at bay to ensure the hospital and wider health service are not swamped again.
Vaccines and the Road To Freedom
The new plan is pinning a lot on vaccination bringing up on the road to freedom. It is expected that around 82pc of adults will have had a first dose of vaccine by the endof June and up to 60pc could be fully vaccinated. That would provide very good coverage, but we would still have a way to go to get herd immunity where over 70pc of the population is vaccinated. That may not be possible until September. The Covid-19 vaccines could exceed our expectations or deliver a major disappointment.
The early results from the UK give cause for optimism. One Covid jab is enough to cut the risk of hospitalisation by up to 94pc and transmission by 70pc, according to a study by Public Health England.
Scientists describe results from the rollout of both the Pfizer/BioNTech and Oxford/AstraZeneca jabs as “spectacular.” A study, covering 1.1 million vaccinations given in Scotland, found that a single dose of the Pfizer vaccine cut the risk of hospitalisation by 85pc after four weeks. Those given the Astra-Zeneca jab fared even better, with risk down by 94pc.
Shouldering the Burden
One of the welcome aspects of the new plan is the focus it puts on the HSE to deliver better on its part in combating the virus. The public can only do so much. It refers to the need to expand testing and tracing to hunt down and contain the virus. There is also reference to more use of antigen tests which are fast and cheap and are likely to have more of a role in workplaces. There is also going to be more expertise on ventilation. All of these need to be acted on now.
Variants
The shadow in the background to the plan remains the new variants. We know about the variants from Brazil and South Africa. There is now another to worry about, we learn today. A California-bred variant that has spread widely across much of the state since the start of the year appears to be more infectious than other versions of the coronavirus. It may also cause more serious illness and be somewhat resistant to the body’s immune response.
By the end of January, the variant made up more than half of cases that were analysed by scientists.
They looked at data from 44 of 58 California counties, including all nine Bay Area counties. The Californina variant spreads more easily than others and has other worrisome traits. Scientists found that about 35pc of household members became infected when one case of the California variant was brought into the home; the attack rate for other variants was about 26pc.
Source: Irish News
