The reproduction rate for COVID-19 is as high as 1.7 in parts of Ireland, and if that trend continues the number of cases are set to rise considerably by next month.
That’s the warning that was given by Professor Philip Nolan, Chair of the NPHET Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group at today’s briefing.
A further 254 cases, with 136 of those in Dublin, were confirmed today while three more people have sadly lost their lives.
NPHET have said that cases are growing “exponentially” across the country, while the situation in Dublin has “deteriorated”.
They have warned that by October 16, if the current trend continues and the R rate isn’t brought back to below 1, that there could be up to 1,000 new cases in the country per day.
And up to 60% – or 600 – of those cases would be in Dublin.
Professor Philip Nolan said: “The reproduction number is between 1.3 – 1.7 nationally. I am more concerned than I have been at any point since late April.
“Case numbers appear to be growing exponentially and are likely to double every 10 to 14 days if every one of us does not immediately act to break chains of transmission of the virus.
“If we do not interrupt transmission now, bring the r-number back to below 1, modelling shows that we could have 500 -1,000 cases per day by the 16 of October, 50-60% of which would be in Dublin.”
Of the cases notified today:
- 115 are men / 133 are women
- 65% are under 45 years of age
- 61% are confirmed to be associated with outbreaks or are close contacts of a confirmed case
- 24 cases have been identified as community transmission
- 136 in Dublin, 20 in Donegal, 13 in Louth, 12 in Wicklow, 9 in Waterford, 7 Carlow, 7 in Cork, 6 in Galway, 5 in Kerry, 5 in Wexford and the remaining 28 cases are located in Clare, Kildare, Kilkenny, Laois, Leitrim, Limerick, Longford, Mayo, Monaghan, Offaly, Roscommon and Westmeath.
Source: Dublin News