2,000 deaths and 1,500 in ICU: NPHET predictions that led to indoor dining delay

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The much-hoped-for return of indoor dining that was scheduled for July 5 has been delayed on the back of horrifying projections from NPHET.

With the rise of the Delta variant, which is over 50% more transmissible than previous variants, the Government has pulled the breaks on reopening.

But just how bad were the projections from NPHET that led the Government to this position?

In total there were 5 projections made from NPHET.

No variant projection

The first projection was if there was no variant present in Ireland. Under those conditions, Nphet estimated 21,000 cases between July 1 and September 30.

The NPHET predictions
The NPHET predictions

405 people would be admitted to the hospital, 55 of those would be transferred to ICU and 80 people would die.

Optimistic with Delta variant

The second projection was labelled “optimistic” and took into account the Delta variant’s presence in the country.

This projects four times the number of cases at 81,000 in the same period.

1,530 people would be admitted to the hospital, 195 people would be in ICU and 165 people would die due to Covid.

Central 1

One of the two main projections which NPHET believe to be the most likely outcome, and it’s startling.

187,000 cases would be detected between July and the end of September.

3,490 Cases would be admitted to hospital which in turn would lead to 450 ICU admissions.

545 people would lose their life under this projection.

Central 2

The other most likely projection from NPHET is Central 2. More than double the 187,000 cases would be detected, at 408,000.

7,690 people would end up needing treatment in hospital. 985 would be admitted to ICU and 1,230 people would die.

Pessimistic

The worst-case scenario harpers back to those dark days and weeks in January and February.

681,000 cases would be detected under this projection. That’s over 200,000 per month.

The healthy system would most likely collapse with 12,985 people admitted to hospital.

1,685 people would need ICU and 2,170 people would die.

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Source: Dublin News